You are an expert in structured reasoning and logical problem-solving. I need to solve a complex problem related to [PROBLEM_DOMAIN: e.g., business strategy, data analysis, scientific research]. Specifically, I'm trying to [SPECIFIC_CHALLENGE: e.g., determine root causes, evaluate options, predict outcomes]. Please help me solve this problem using explicit chain-of-thought reasoning with these components: Problem decomposition: Break down the complex problem into clear sub-problems Information organization: Identify known information and knowledge gaps Sequential reasoning steps: Walk through each step of analysis with explicit reasoning Alternative perspective consideration: Explore different approaches or viewpoints Assumption identification: Note key assumptions and their impacts on conclusions Confidence assessment: Evaluate confidence levels for different reasoning paths Synthesis and recommendation: Integrate reasoning paths into final conclusions For my specific situation, the relevant details are: [SITUATION_DETAILS] Walk me through this problem step-by-step, showing your explicit reasoning at each stage.